Electricity rate forecast

Arbor's own forecast of residential electricity supply rates across the utilities we serve. Based on utility default-rate filings and forward energy markets.

The overall trend

A single average trend line across 23 utilities in 8 states and DC. The figures above show where the index sits today and where we forecast it in 12 months — but that average smooths over wide variation. Individual utilities range from the steepest increases we track to a handful projected to ease. Full breakdown by utility below.

10¢12¢14¢16¢18¢20¢NowHigher est.Lower est.'25'26'27

Solid = actual · Dashed = forecast · Dotted = likely range

Today

13.5¢

Index average

In 12 months

15.0¢

Forecast average

% change

+11.1%
Over 12 months

By utility and state

Each utility's current supply rate and its 12-month forecast, ranked by projected change, biggest increase first.

*Estimated monthly change at 1,000 kWh, the standard rate-comparison benchmark.

Methodology

The Arbor Rate Forecast projects each utility's residential default supply rate — the 'price to compare' on your bill — across 23 utilities in 9 deregulated markets in 8 states and DC. The underlying forecast is re-run weekly; this page reflects the latest published edition, dated above. The model projects several years out, though the table shows the 12-month view.

Most rate information tells you what you're paying today, or gives a generic estimate of what's "typical." We forecast forward instead, by rebuilding each rate from the wholesale costs utilities actually procure. A wholesale-energy layer draws on PJM/ISO-NE power markets and natural gas curves; a capacity layer draws on PJM's annual capacity auction; and a procurement layer folds in each utility's own default-service auctions (PA's DSP, NJ's BGS, Ohio's SSO) as they clear. A model tuned to each utility then translates those inputs into that service area's posted rate — so the forecast reflects how that specific utility passes costs through, not a one-size-fits-all markup.

The chart at the top is the overall average: the simple, unweighted average of these utilities' rates each month, in cents per kWh. Every utility counts equally, whether it serves five million homes or five hundred thousand, so the average deliberately understates the biggest individual movers, and several utilities are projected to rise well beyond it. The higher and lower estimates are an 80% confidence range, widening the further out the forecast goes.

Every forecast carries a confidence tier — High, Medium, or Low — based on how closely the model has tracked real rates in past backtests; well-covered utilities usually land within a few percentage points of the actual rate at the one-year mark, while areas with thinner auction history or recent regulatory changes get wider ranges and lower confidence, shown plainly rather than buried.

Read the forecast as a schedule of upcoming changes with uncertainty attached, not a single prediction of your future bill. Rates move in steps on each utility's reset date, and the further out the forecast looks, the wider that uncertainty gets.

Summer 2026
Electric bills are designed to be confusing. We analyzed 200,000 of them so they're not.