Arbor Index Summer 2026 breaks down electric bills and where prices head
ISSUE 1 • SUMMER 2026
BY ARBOR RESEARCH • PUBLISHED JUNE 18
Arbor Index
Electric bills are designed to be confusing. We analyzed 200,000 of them so they're not. Here's what you're actually paying for, how that shows up on your bill, and where prices are headed.
1. Bill breakdown: supply vs. delivery
Your bill has two parts: supply vs. delivery
Your electricity costs come from two separate things, and it’s really easy to miss that on your bill: Delivery - wires, poles, meters - is set by your utility. Supply is the actual electricity. Each utility divides these costs differently.
In over a dozen states, you can pick your supplier. If you don't, you're on a default rate you never chose.
Median Monthly Bill Costs
| Utility Provider | Supply Costs | Delivery Costs and Fees | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PPL Pennsylvania | $135 (65%) | $72 (35%) | $207 |
Median figures across 53,236 PPL PA bills from Arbor's dataset, June 2025-May 2026. "Delivery costs and fees" includes delivery, taxes, customer charge, and riders - anything on the bill that is not supply.
2. Your summer bill is heating up
Summer electric bills rose last year. But the reason varies. For most utilities we tracked, supply rates drove it: that's the part you can actually change. For a few, it was delivery charges — poles, wires, grid maintenance — the part you can't. Two different stories. See which one is yours.
Your bill, year over year
| Utility Provider | Rate Change | Usage Change | Total Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| AES Ohio | +9% | -3% | +16% |
| PPL Pennsylvania | +24% | 0% | +14% |
| Central Maine Power | -1% | -3% | +14% |
| PECO Pennsylvania | +12% | -2% | +11% |
| National Grid Massachusetts | 0% | -1% | +7% |
| Eversource | 0% | 0% | +6% |
Same households measured across summer 2024 and 2025 (June–September), paired year over year using month-matched methodology.
3. Where your rate goes from here
Utility commissions set default supply rates a few months at a time. Arbor's forecast looks further out, using wholesale energy prices and our real-bill data, so you can predict what’s coming.
Arbor Index — Forecast Module
Default supply rate, ¢ per kWh
| Utility Provider | Today | In 12 Months |
|---|---|---|
| PSE&G New Jersey | 18.8¢ | 24.1¢ |
Bill Impact: + $53 / mo for a typical home.
Projected from Arbor’s rate model (supply auctions, PJM capacity, forward power prices, natural gas). Rates change in steps, when your utility resets them. The solid line is the rate in effect now, and the dashed line and shaded band are the projection.
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