Issue No. 2 · Fall 2026 · By Arbor Research

Arbor Index

TK TK TK Here's what last winter did to your bill, and the wave of new rates landing even before it does.

Editor's Note

Last winter, the typical electric bill climbed about 20% and almost none of it was the weather. This issue looks back at what moved, then forward at the wave of new rates resetting before the cold.

01 · The winter blues

Last winter, bills went up about 20%, and it wasn't the weather

Across 13,672 households — the same home measured in both winters — the median bill rose about 20%. The tell is what drove it: usage barely moved, but the supply rate jumped. About three-quarters of the increase was the rate, not the weather.

Exhibit A
The rates landing this winter
Illustrative — new supply rates by utility. Draft data.

02 · The forecast

A wave of new rates is about to hit

The rates landing this winter, and who we predict will move most and least.

Exhibit B
Rates are here
Forecast data.

03 · Data centers & the grid

Not in your backyard, but you pay if you're on the same grid

You're not paying a data center's electricity bill. You pay more for grid capacity, because their demand bid up the cost of keeping the whole system reliable, and that cost gets spread across everyone in the same pool. Proximity is what often makes headlines, but being on the same grid is a big part of the story.

Exhibit C
Same grid, same spike
TBD but potentially able to do something with the PJM-vs-ISO-NE comparison.